Multiple independent astronomy tracking analyses, news outlets, and a dedicated observational-planning paper agree that the spent upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket (catalogued as 2025-010D) is on a trajectory to impact the lunar surface near Einstein Crater on August 5, 2026, at roughly 06:35 UTC (about 2:34–2:44 a.m. Eastern Time), with only minor uncertainty of a few minutes and a few kilometers in the impact location.[2][3][4][5][7][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][19]
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