Are Polymarket predictions more accurate than political polls?

Majority view

Research comparing prediction markets and polls does not support a universal claim that Polymarket predictions are more accurate. Evidence is mixed: some studies find prediction markets outperform polls in particular periods or elections, while other research finds polls equal or superior when both are available. Polymarket's own accuracy figures are self-reported and do not establish a general comparison with political polls.

Credible dissent

Credible studies disagree depending on the election, forecast horizon, market, and whether polls or market prices are adjusted. Some research finds prediction markets outperform polls, while other research finds polls perform as well or better.