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Politics & Government

JPMorgan says it will no longer try to predict oil prices

Submitted as: Is this true?

Consensus

Well-supported — high-quality sources agree

11 sources · 11 support

What we can confirm

Multiple reputable reports in mid-September 2026 state that JPMorgan’s commodities team has abandoned its baseline forecast for oil prices, saying they no longer have a clear view of the market and “don’t know how to model the endgame” of the US–Iran war. These reports explain that earlier assumptions about President Trump’s economic “red lines” (such as tolerable oil price levels) have failed, making the conflict’s trajectory and thus oil prices highly dependent on Trump’s decisions. While the exact viral wording is simplified, the core idea—that JPMorgan has effectively stopped issuing a clear oil-price forecast because the outcome hinges on unpredictable Trump actions—is well supported by these sources.

Sources

JPMorgan oil team gives up on forecasting Iran war endgame as Trump blows past economic redlines

cnbc.com

supportsMedia

JPMorgan drops Iran war oil forecast as redlines are crossed

finance.yahoo.com

supportsMedia

Oil prices: Red lines crossed? No baseline view, JPMorgan sees $90 fair value - BusinessToday

businesstoday.in

supportsMedia

Checked September 20, 2026 · we'll re-check as this develops

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